The incidence rate of THAs is anticipated to increase from 338 to 437 (357-535) per 100,000 inhabitants (29% [95% CI 6 to 58]) between 2016 and 2040. NLM Raumforsch Raumordn. Based on these United Nations projections, the German population is likely to decline by over 10 million people as we move towards the end of the 21st century. The projected volume of primary and revision total knee arthroplasty will place an immense burden on future health care systems over the next 30 years. Through 2040, the incidence rate for both TKA and THA will continue to increase annually. Jacobs E, Hoyer A, Brinks R, Kuss O, Rathmann W. Burden of mortality attributable to diagnosed diabetes: a nationwide analysis based on claims data from 65 million people in Germany. Article détaillé : Natalité en France. 2012 Oct;26(5):637-47. doi: 10.1016/j.berh.2012.07.014. 2015 Jun;473(6):2131-8. doi: 10.1007/s11999-014-4078-8. Results: For TKA, the incidence rate is expected to increase from 245 TKAs per 100,000 inhabitants to 379 (297-484) (55%, 95% CI 21 to 98). Unlike the United States, Germany and many other countries face a population decline driven by low fertility rates, longer life expectancy, and immigration rates that cannot compensate for population aging. Births.  |  To project the number of people with Type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2015 and 2040. The researchers assume a reduction in the per capita income of €3,700 until 2040. Many developing countries are likely to follow that example in the short or medium term amid global aging. You are here: Homepage; Themes; Society and environment; Population; Population projection; Table of content. This is a stark contrast to other parts of the world, such as the booming megacities in Asia and Africa, that will soon dominate the world’s future demographic landscape. Conclusions: Conclusions: Although the total number of TKAs and THAs is projected to increase in Germany between now and 2040, the increase will be smaller than that previously forecast for the United States, due in large part to the German population decreasing over that time, while the American population increases. 21.4 mn population aged 67 and over in 2040. eCollection 2020. Calculation of age‐specific prevalence of Type 2 diabetes. Germany Area and Population Density.  |  NIH Mi­gra­tion. Increase in Total Joint Arthroplasty Projected from 2014 to 2046 in Australia: A Conservative Local Model With International Implications. R01 AG058878/AG/NIA NIH HHS/United States. Clipboard, Search History, and several other advanced features are temporarily unavailable. NIH Mar­riages, di­vorces and life part­ner­ships. ; Germany ranks number 19 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population. Three population pyramids of Germany: in 1889, 1989 and 2000. The most populous member state is Germany, with an estimated 82.8 million people, and the least populous member state is Malta with 0.48 million. The Prevalence and Incidence of Diabetes in Germany. [Population trends up to 2030: results of the seventh coordinated population projections]. GBD 2016 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. 2016 Mar 18;113(11):177-82. doi: 10.3238/arztebl.2016.0177. Temporal trends in the incidence rate are the main drivers … Application of current age-specific prevalence estimates to the projected age structure in 2040, although ignoring temporal trends in incidence and mortality, yielded an increase in the number of Type 2 diabetes cases from 6.9 million in 2015 to 8.3 million (+21%) in 2040. HHS Clipboard, Search History, and several other advanced features are temporarily unavailable. This site needs JavaScript to work properly. Although the total number of TKAs and THAs is projected to increase in Germany between now and 2040, the increase will be smaller than that previously forecast for the United States, due in large part to the German population decreasing over that time, while the American population increases. During the same period, the number of primary THAs is expected to increase by 23% (95% CI 0 to 50), from 229,726 to 282,034 (95% CI 230,473 to 345,228). CORR Insights®: Projections of Primary TKA and THA in Germany From 2016 Through 2040.  |  Carmienke S, Baumert J, Gabrys L, Heise M, Frese T, Heidemann C, Fink A. BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care. All ICMJE Conflict of Interest Forms for authors and Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research® editors and board members are on file with the publication and can be viewed on request. Level III, economic and decision analysis. [Population trends up to 2040]. [Article in German] Sommer B. PIP: Population projections for Germany are presented for the period 1993-2040 using three different variants. 2020 Jul;478(7):1634-1635. doi: 10.1097/CORR.0000000000001258. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100. 2020 Jul 15:1-12. doi: 10.1007/s00167-020-06154-7. USA.gov. 2017. Knowledge of these trends may help planning by surgeons, hospitals, stakeholders, and policy makers in countries similar to Germany, where high incidence rates of arthroplasty, aging populations, and overall decreasing populations are present. 45.8 mn population aged 20 - 66 in 2040. Comparative Epidemiology of Revision Arthroplasty: Failed THA Poses Greater Clinical and Economic Burdens Than Failed TKA. Inacio MCS, Graves SE, Pratt NL, Roughead EE, Nemes S. Clin Orthop Relat Res. Clin Orthop Relat Res. Deaths, life ex­pectan­cy. More realistic scenarios that account for decreasing mortality rates and different trends in the incidence rates project between 10.7 million (+54%) and 12.3 million (+77%) Type 2 diabetes cases in 2040. Raumforsch Raumordn. For the first time, we projected the number of future Type 2 diabetes cases for the whole adult population in Germany.  |  Wilke T, Mueller S, Fuchs A, Kaltoft MS, Kipper S, Cel M. Diabetes Ther. [Trends in private households up to 2015]. Klug A, Gramlich Y, Rudert M, Drees P, Hoffmann R, Weißenberger M, Kutzner KP. The projected age-specific prevalence was applied to the projected age structure of the German population between 2015 and 2040 to calculate the number of people with Type 2 diabetes. Lancet 2011; 378: 31-40. Epub 2012 Aug 10. that might pose a conflict of interest in connection with the submitted article. Pop­u­la­tion pro­jec­tion.